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Why Ethereum (ETH) Might Fall Below $1,155 in 2026 이더리움

여행365 2026. 2. 7. 15:18

It is possible that Ethereum (ETH) could drop below $1,155 in 2026, but it depends on a mix of macroeconomic conditions, crypto-specific risks, and market sentiment.

Here’s a balanced view based on market drivers and historical behavior:


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📉 Why ETH Might Fall Below $1,155 in 2026

1. Broader Risk-Off Market Conditions

During periods of high risk aversion (e.g., recession fears, stock market sell-offs), crypto assets often decline more sharply than traditional assets.
If global markets enter a downturn in 2026, ETH could break key support levels — possibly below $1,155.

2. Regulatory Pressure

Negative regulatory developments — such as stricter crypto laws in the U.S. or EU — can trigger sell-offs.

For example, bans on certain institutional participation, taxation changes, or punitive rules on staking could weigh heavily on ETH’s price.

3. Technical Corrections

Cryptocurrency markets are known for sharp corrections. If ETH rallied strongly prior to 2026 and the market sees profit-taking or liquidity drying up, technical selling could push prices lower.

4. Competition & Protocol Risks

Emerging Layer-1 networks or any major issues with Ethereum’s network (e.g., delays in upgrades, security incidents) might erode investor confidence and trigger a decline.


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📈 Why It Might Not Drop Below $1,155

1. Ongoing Institutional Interest

If institutions continue to allocate to ETH — driven by staking yields or DeFi exposure — downside support could be strong.

2. Increasing Utility

Growth in decentralized applications (DeFi, NFTs, Tokenization, DAOs), and continued inflows into staking or liquid staking products could buoy demand.

3. Historical Volatility

Ethereum has experienced big swings historically but has also maintained higher lows over major cycles. In some past downturns, it didn’t revisit earlier lows once markets improved.


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🧠 Historical Perspective

In previous cycles:

ETH fell below $1,000 in major crypto bear markets (2018, 2022).

But it didn’t breach those lows once broader markets recovered.


So the possibility exists — but context matters greatly.


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📊 Summary — Probability & Conditions

Scenario Likelihood (Conditional) Key Driver

Drop below $1,155 Moderate–High if macro stress increases Recession, regulation, risk unwinding

Stay above $1,155 Moderate–High if sentiment remains positive Adoption, staking demand, network growth


Bottom Line:
Yes — Ethereum could fall below $1,155 in 2026, especially under negative macroeconomic or regulatory conditions.


But it’s not a guaranteed outcome; positive fundamentals and demand could keep ETH above that level.


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🧾 Reminder

This is not financial advice — just an analysis of potential outcomes. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results.


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If you want, I can dive deeper into specific catalysts that might trigger such a drop or build a simple probability model for ETH price movements in 2026 — just let me know!